Personal blog on early retirement, a little traveling, and analytics projects. I write about what I learn as I am learning it.
Posts about the MLB daily-fantasy lineup optimizer and MLB DFS modelling.
This is part three of my series on rebuilding the daily fantasy lineup optimizer I started in Excel in 2012 (start here if you missed the first one). This post is about a small, clever trick I used in the spreadsheet for years to handle players who can fill more than one position — and why, when I rebuilt the tool, I deliberately threw it away.
This is the second post in my series about rebuilding the daily fantasy lineup optimizer I first wrote in Excel back in 2012 (the origin story is here). Before I get into the clever parts, I want to start with the simplest and most important idea: a fantasy lineup is just a knapsack problem wearing a baseball cap. Once you see that, everything the optimizer does makes sense.
Back in 2012 I got into daily fantasy baseball, and like a lot of people with an Operations Research degree and a little too much free time, I couldn’t just play. I had to model it. That turned into an Excel spreadsheet that picked my lineups for me, which a few years later turned into a small side business selling those spreadsheets on Fiverr, which then sat untouched in a folder for the better part of a decade. This summer I finally dragged it back out and rebuilt it as a free lineup optimizer that runs in your browser at mlb-lineup-optimizer.kindoflost.com. This is the story of how it got here, and the first post in a short series about the rebuild.
This is the last post in my accidental Fourier-Motzkin trilogy (part one: the method; part two: the baseball lineups), and it’s about the bill coming due. Because when you use elimination to throw variables out of a model, the mathematics is very clear about what you keep — and very quiet about what you lose. I found out exactly what I’d lost the first time DraftKings rejected a lineup my spreadsheet swore was legal. The story runs straight through a beautiful piece of combinatorics called Hall’s marriage theorem, so we’ll pick that up along the way.
Continue reading “Hall’s Marriage Theorem Meets the DraftKings Entry Form”In my last post about Fourier-Motzkin elimination I promised a real example involving baseball, and I keep my promises. This is the story of how a dusty 19th-century math trick ended up picking my daily fantasy lineups — and how I stumbled into a genuine Fourier-Motzkin elimination example without fully realizing that’s what I was doing until much later.
Continue reading “A Fourier-Motzkin Elimination Example: DraftKings Lineups”