On October 16 a single DFS late scratch sat in 29.1% of the NHL lineups I had built for a two-game slate. Egor Chinakhov, a $4,100 Penguins winger, was ruled out about 25 minutes before puck drop, and my Frozen Tools set had him in 134 of its 461 lineups. In the real DraftKings contests, 1.6% of entries had him. I have since rebuilt the night without him, checked four other nights, and added a “Check late news” button to my NHL lineup optimizer and the other three sports. The surprise is how little removing him changed.
Continue reading “One Scratched Winger Was in 29% of My NHL DFS Lineups”Tag: NFL
Posts about the NFL daily-fantasy lineup optimizer and NFL DFS modelling.
Vegas Lines and Injury Reports in My Lineup Optimizers
My free lineup optimizers for MLB, NFL and NHL now pull two things you used to have to look up in another tab: the league’s injury report and the Vegas lines. The part I care about most is how the Vegas lines get used, because the first version of that rule quietly did the opposite of what I built it for. Implied team totals are the most useful number on a DFS slate that isn’t in the salary file, so this is the post about how the tool gets them, what it does with them, and the one rule I had to throw away.
A Free NFL Lineup Optimizer for DraftKings and FanDuel
The NFL lineup optimizer is live. It is free, there is no account, no email, and no cap on how many lineups you can build. It works with DraftKings and FanDuel, and it hands you a CSV formatted for direct re-upload to whichever one you came from.
It is the football version of the baseball optimizer I put up in June, built on the same solver with a different set of rules on top — and since then a hockey version, the free NHL lineup optimizer, plus a look at basketball, where the stacking rules turned out to barely exist.
Nine Named Ranges and a Macro Called alternate_qb
The football folder had twelve .xlsm files in it, all with the same file date because I had copied them off an old drive in one go. Windows was no help. The real dates were inside — every Office file carries its own modified timestamp in docProps/core.xml, and a spreadsheet is just a zip archive, so you can read it without opening Excel at all — which is how I tracked down the file that became this NFL lineup optimizer for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Eleven of them were from 2014 and 2015. One was from October 2021, had nineteen worksheets instead of five, and was called fanduel football 2021 fast.xlsm. That was the one worth porting.
In Baseball You Stack a Team. In Football You Stack a Throw.
I have had a baseball lineup optimizer running on this site since June. Pointing it at football looked like a small job — swap ten roster slots for nine, swap a $50,000 cap for a $60,000 one, done. That part took an afternoon. The part that took actual thought was NFL DFS stacking: baseball and football are correlated in completely different ways, and correlation is the whole game.
In baseball, the correlation is sequential. Batters score in a chain: a single sets up the double that drives him in. That is why my MLB optimizer has a constraint forcing four hitters from one team into consecutive batting-order spots — 3-4-5-6, not 2-5-7-9. In football there is no batting order. The correlation is simultaneous, and it is much sharper.
